Somalia: fragile TFG might face Nigeria-like Oil dilemma

Jimma Times staff

Another rebel attack in southern Nigeria led to another death of a foreign oil worker Friday and there are fears that such Oil conflict could become the scene in Somalia very soon as well.

The recent dispute between the Transitional Federal Government (TFG) President Abdullahi Yusuf and Prime Minister Ali Mohamed Gedi are reportedly deeper than just disagreements on the chief justice of the Supreme Court dismissal.

Another point of quarrel has been Oil deals in Somalia, particularly in the semiautonomous Puntland. So far, Prime Minister Gedi has rejected all the regional Oil deals stating that only the federal government has the mandate to endorse such foreign deals.

However, President Yusuf has supported the Puntland Oil deals and has signed with more Oil firms himself, despite the Prime Minister requesting a Petroleum law prior to any deals.

The issue gets more complex as any future compromise between the two leaders will still not solve concerns with the Oil firms, since local villages are still marginalized by the regional officials. Just like the lack of economic benefits for the locals fueling the clashes in Nigeria, the relative peace in Northern Somalia can disappear if the arrival of more Oil firms occur without careful deliberations inside the government, regional officials as well as at the clan & village level.

Some sources claim that more than 5,000 Nigerians have been killed in the violence at the Oil production areas during the last six years alone. Nigeria, a country with 250 ethnic groups and a near 50-50 percent Islam to Christian ratio, has far more the ingredients needed for division, lack of trust and rivalry that lead to violence than Somalia.

But with Somali clans and sub-clans being equally rivals, the Nigeria scenario might occur in Somalia and spread out the already existing humanitarian concern & violence in the south. In order to hide the crisis in Nigeria, international Oil companies have allegedly created a diplomatic network and have been feeding the security forces in Nigeria, including allegedly purchasing helicopters that shot at peaceful protestors in southern Nigeria.

In Somalia, even the most politically powerful Oil firms will not be able to hide the violence and the consequences of irresponsible investments.